Merry Christmas ☕🎄 Grab your coffee and settle in…this is PredictionDesk with your daily prediction markets update.
We break down prediction markets so you don't have to: the stories, the chaos, the plays that matter. All in 5 minutes.
Here's what we got for you today:
💸 Polymarket accounts get drained - but it wasn't the protocol
🎬 Two Netflix employees allegedly make $50k betting on shows they knew would hit #1
🚀 A new prediction market on Solana raises $5M offering 10x leverage.
📡 Coinbase's x402 does $50M+ in 30 days. Here's why that matters for prediction markets.
Let's get into it.
POLYMARKET USERS WAKE UP TO EMPTY WALLETS 💸
The short version: Polymarket recently confirmed that a limited number of user accounts were drained due to a vulnerability in a third-party authentication provider - not Polymarket's core protocol. (Binance, Dec 24)
The suspected culprit? Magic Labs, the company behind those convenient "magic link" email logins.
Think of it like this: Imagine your gym membership key fob somehow let someone into your house. That's basically what happened here. The lock on Polymarket's front door was fine. The problem was the side door.
What we know:
Issue has been fixed
Polymarket says there's "no ongoing risk"
Affected users appear to be those using email-based / magic link logins
What we don't know:
How many users were affected
How much money was lost
Whether affected users will be compensated
This reignites the classic Web3 debate: convenience vs. security. Email logins are easier. But when they break, someone else gets your money.
We'll keep watching this one.
NETFLIX STAFF ALLEGEDLY BET $50K USING INSIDER INFO 🎬
A viral thread on X is alleging that Netflix employees (or interns) used insider knowledge to bet on Netflix Top 10 markets - and cleaned up. (Mnimiy on X)
The receipts:
Account #1: "interventionrequest" (Polymarket)
Created December 16
Funded with $10k
15 out of 15 winning predictions on Netflix markets
Hit all three of yesterday's Top 3: Man vs Bee #1, Emily in Paris S5 #2, Joshua vs Paul #3
Went from $18,000 → $45,000 in about a day
Account #2: "sendal" (Polymarket)
Created December 23 (just two days ago!)
Deposited $5k
Made two bets: Man vs Bee - Yes, Joshua vs Paul - No
Walked away with $15,500
That's basically a month's intern salary in one afternoon.
Why this matters:
This is what traders call the "toxic flow" problem. Prediction markets work because they aggregate information from people with skin in the game.
But if insiders are trading on information nobody else has? The odds stop being "wisdom of crowds" and start being "information asymmetry monetized."
Important caveat: This is an allegation based on a viral thread. We don't have statements from Netflix or Polymarket. But those account patterns are... suspicious.
NEW PREDICTION MARKET RAISES $5M OFFERING 10X LEVERAGE 🚀
Space raises $5M in a public sale - 200% oversubscribed. More proof this space is heating up fast. (Space on X)
What is Space?
A Solana-based prediction market platform with one big differentiator: leveraged positions up to 10x.
Yes, you read that right. You can now bet on whether Bitcoin hits $150k... with leverage.
The details:
$5M raised in a public sale (2x oversubscribed)
$50M - $99M FDV range being floated
100% unlocked at TGE (token generation event)
Tokenomics include buyback/burn funded by platform revenue
The bigger picture:
Right now, the prediction market narrative is "Polymarket vs Kalshi" - crypto vs regulated, offshore vs onshore.
Space is trying to make it something else entirely: betting with leverage.
This is definitely one to watch heading into 2025. A prediction market on Solana with 10x leverage could get very interesting, very fast.
ODDS & ENDS 📡
x402 did $50M+ in 30 days. Coinbase's new payment rail for AI agents. If this takes off, prediction markets become a natural use case. (Brian Armstrong on X)
Kalshi eyes Brazil expansion plans for 2026. Nothing finalized yet. Big question: betting, securities, or derivatives? (Valor, Dec 22)
Christmas song odds flipping. Yesterday Mariah at ~74%, today Wham! is at ~71%. Could flip again at midnight. (Kalshi)
MARKET MOVES 📈
Metric | Market |
Biggest swing | Epstein client list released by December 31?" moved ~1% → 13% (Polymarket) |
Most traded | "California at Hawaii" - $37m total volume (Kalshi) |
Weirdest market with volume | “Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?" - $7.5m total volume (Polymarket) |
TOP TRADERS TODAY 🏆
Rank | Trader | 24hr Profit | Platform |
#1 | +$168,033 | Polymarket | |
#2 | +$163,805 | Polymarket | |
#3 | +$55,970 | Polymarket |
Meanwhile, not a single Kalshi trader cracked the top 24hr profit list. Their best? $27k. Polymarket's playing a different game.
MEME OF THE DAY
Source: Kalshi
High school dropout Nathan Meininger went from DoorDash driver to $130k trading prediction markets.
Meanwhile, I'm down 47% on my 'Will it snow in Miami?' bet.
Merry Christmas to everyone except my portfolio.
THAT'S A WRAP 🎬
Day two in the books.
Tomorrow we're back with more markets, more moves, and hopefully fewer security breaches.
If you made it this far - thanks for being here. Forward this to a friend who needs to know about prediction markets.
See you tomorrow.
- The PredictionDesk Team
PS: Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, showed some love to our X account yesterday. Bullish…
Source: PredictionDesk X Account
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Not investment advice. For informational and entertainment purposes only.