📊 Polymarket just changed forever

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People always ask, “Why would I use Polymarket over a DraftKings or Fanduel?” My answer was always the same two reasons: First, you can bet on anything, not just sports. Second, Polymarket doesn't charge fees while DraftKings and FanDuel take 10-20% off the top.

That second part just changed.

Yesterday, Polymarket introduced fees for the first time ever. The platform that built its entire identity on "we don't take a cut" just started taking a cut.

Well, sort of. Because where the fee money goes matters a lot here.

To get specific, Polymarket rolled out their fee program called "Maker Rebates" for 15-minute crypto markets, such as betting on whether the price of a crypto asset such as Bitcoin will go up or down.

Here's how it works: some people post buy and sell orders that sit there waiting to be filled (market makers). Other people just click buy or sell at the current price (regular traders). Under the new system, market makers get paid daily in USDC when their orders get filled. Regular traders pay fees up to 3.7% depending on the odds.

Now, for the fee structure. When you buy, the fee comes out of your purchase amount (peaks around 1.6% at 50% odds). When you sell, it comes out of your winnings (peaks around 3.7% near 30% odds). The closer you are to extreme probabilities (10% or 90%), the lower the fees.

Polymarket's zero-fee model was its killer feature and a major reason why traders left traditional sportsbooks or betting platforms. But here's the difference: Polymarket's fees get redistributed to market makers rather than kept by Polymarket itself. In other words, Polymarket collects fees from casual traders and pays them out to people who are constantly posting competitive prices.

A silver lining: These 15-minute crypto markets move fast. When liquidity is thin, you might want to buy at 50% odds, but the best price available is 55% odds. That 5% gap costs you money. Maker rebates solve this by paying people to post tight prices constantly. The gap shrinks. You get better prices. Trades fill more reliably.

So yes, you're paying a fee now on this one type of market. But you're getting tighter spreads in return. You might actually come out ahead.

In the future, if Polymarket starts adding maker rebates to politics, sports, and other markets, the entire platform changes in a somewhat good way. Prediction markets have struggled to attract professional liquidity. Retail traders show up for elections and big events, but they're not posting competitive prices 24/7. Market makers would, but they need an incentive. Maker rebates give them one: get paid to provide better prices.

Polymarket introducing fees is a bit risky. Their brand was built on "no fees." But if the fees fund better liquidity instead of enriching the platform, it could improve the platform greatly. The question is whether this stays in one corner or expands everywhere.

We'll know soon. For now, one market has fees. Either it works and becomes the blueprint, or it quietly disappears.

Prediction markets just put on a blazer.

Kalshi is quietly rolling out a program for its biggest sports traders, the same playbook DraftKings, FanDuel, and Vegas casinos have run for decades. Comped dinners. Tickets to games. Free merch. The whole “thanks for losing a lot of money with us” package.

They’re calling it Platinum.

According to Kalshi, this is about “priority support and other benefits for our most loyal customers.” Translation: some users trade so much volume that it’s worth assigning a human to keep them happy.

Kalshi is no longer pretending it’s just a trading platform. They’re getting a better understanding of their customer base and offering a white-glove experience to its top users.

For years, prediction markets pitched themselves as higher-IQ polling instruments, truth machines powered by incentives. The moment you introduce hosts, perks, and VIP tiers, you’re acknowledging the obvious: a meaningful chunk of activity looks a lot like sports betting. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Sportsbooks figured out a long time ago that their best customers don’t want better odds, they want friction removed and status acknowledged. They want faster withdrawals and better customer service. They want courtside seats next to Emily Ratajkowski if they’re lucky enough.

The interesting question isn’t whether Platinum users get free hats.

It’s whether this signals where prediction markets are heading: regulated, financialized, and increasingly indistinguishable from sportsbooks, but with a cleaner narrative and better lobbyists.

Markets always follow the money. Kalshi is started rolling out the red carpet.

Read more about Kalshi’s new offering here.

Google will start accepting ads for prediction markets on January 21, 2026. Only platforms regulated by the CFTC as Designated Contract Markets or brokerages registered with the National Futures Association can apply.

Google's policy distinguishes prediction markets from three prohibited categories: binary options with fixed payouts, gambling-style markets (unless permitted as regulated prediction markets locally), and sites offering trading signals for event contracts. Advertisers, however, need Google certification for each location they target, and violations get your account suspended immediately.

This policy follows Google's playbook for sports betting ads, which is rolled out state-by-state since 2018. However, prediction markets benefit from federal approval: one CFTC authorization instead of 50 state licenses. For platforms like Kalshi that already have the regulatory approval, this opens up paid acquisition at scale.

The timing is notable: Google gave just 16 days between announcement and implementation. Typical policy updates get 30 to 90 days. Prediction markets just got the clearest sign yet that they've hit the mainstream.